Are we going to witness a Black Swan event?

Lately, there have been a slate of negative news coming out from United States:
a) Budget impasse in the Congress to reduce the budget deficit
b) S&P turning negative on United States "AAA"credit ratings
c) The continuing decline of the US Dollar
d) The declining global economic influence of the United States of America

I am not an expert in United States economic or political issues. However, what I do know is :
a) Governments around the world are holding trillions of US Treasuries
b) The preferred choice of currency for economic trade is US Dollar
c) Many economies have pegged their own currencies to the US Dollar

The economic and political impacts to the world should the downgrade of US's AAA credit rating occur cannot be ignored and underestimated. The repercussions could be severe and may lead to a global Depression.

I'm not a pessimist by nature. But the warning signs are clear and unless the Congress and the White House make a concerted effort in dealing with the growing budget deficit, US may not be able to recover from another Black Swan event.

regards,
Bernard

Career management strategies

It is bonus time again. By now, most of us would be either be looking to upgrade your car, looking for the next condominium or reviewing your CVs and preparing to send to the next available headhunter who calls you.

For those who are dead set on moving on, don't jump the ship prematurely. It is always easy to throw in the towel and call it quits. There are couple of simple steps to assess whether it is time for you to move:

1) Take stock of what you have accomplished;
2) What are your strengths and weaknesses;
3) Review your career objectives. Every company perform some form "strategic review" exercise every few years. We should also perform some form of strategic review as well. Look at the soft factors such as "do you enjoy predictable tasks or variety of tasks", "are you a team player or an independent team member". These questions will help you in assessing your next career move.